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    1961-2013年中国强降水特征分析

    Characteristics analysis of heavy precipitation in China from 1961 to 2013

    • 摘要: 利用1961-2013年中国726个气象站降水数据,以极端强降水的强度及频数分别定义强降水,采用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)法、小波分析和M-K检验法分析中国近50 a强降水的空间和时间变化特征。结果表明:以极端强降水的强度定义强降水指标,将高荷载值集中分为四个区域,华中和华东部分地区,华东、华中及华南部分地区,华东和华中部分地区,西南部分地区。各区强降水事件呈显著的增加趋势(P<0.05)。各区强降水突变时间基本一致,均发生在20世纪80年代初,四个区域最强的能量波动时间分别为1995-2005年、1997-2010年、1996-2010年、1961-2013年。以极端强降水的频数定义强降水指标,分析出第二模态的华中和华东部分地区强降水事件呈现显著增多趋势(P<0.1)。

       

      Abstract: Heavy precipitation was defined separately according to the intensity and frequency of extremely heavy precipitation based on the precipitation data obtained from 726 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2013.The spatial and temporal variations of heavy precipitation over China in the recent 50a were analyzed using the methods of Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF),wavelet analysis,and the Mann-Kendall trend test.An indicator for heavy precipitation was defined by the intensity of extremely heavy precipitation.Based on this indicator,four regions with high load values are distinguished,most regions concentrate in the middle of eastern China and the other in the southern and southwestern China.Heavy precipitation events in different regions increase significantly (p < 0.05),all with an abrupt change in the early 1980s.The strongest energy fluctuation over the four regions occurs in the periods of 1995-2005,1997-2010,1996-2010,and 1961-2013,respectively.The other indicator for heavy precipitation defined by the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation shows that the heavy precipitation events increase significantly in some regions of the middle and eastern China in the second EOF mode (P<0.1).

       

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